The School of Odds

Washington Nationals v Houston Astros

2026-07-06 22:46 — MLB

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Option 1: Washington Nationals (Local)

Odds
1.6660.24%Min
1.7258.08%Mean
1.7258.14%Median
1.7955.87%Max
Consensus probabilities
54.64%1.830Min
56.85%1.759Max
55.22%1.811Mean
55.21%1.811Median
55.20%1.811IQM
55.25%1.810Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.79 under the IQM model: 55.20%

EV -1.19%Edge -0.662%Kelly -1.50%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Houston Astros (Visit)

Odds
2.0050.00%Min
2.1346.96%Mean
2.1546.51%Median
2.2045.45%Max
Consensus probabilities
43.15%2.317Min
45.36%2.205Max
44.78%2.233Mean
44.79%2.233Median
44.80%2.232IQM
44.75%2.234Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.20 under the IQM model: 44.80%

EV -1.45%Edge -0.658%Kelly -1.21%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

BookmakerWashington Nationals (Local) ▼Houston Astros (Visit)MarginUpdated
1xBet1.79I 55.87% NM 54.80%EV -1.19% E -0.662% K -1.50% G +0.000%2.17I 46.08% NM 45.20%EV -2.79% E -1.29% K -2.39% G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-05 18:35
GTbets1.77I 56.50% NM 55.42%EV -2.29% E -1.29% K -2.97% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 44.58%EV -1.45% E -0.658% K -1.21% G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-05 18:15
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50% NM 55.19%EV -2.29% E -1.29% K -2.97% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 44.81%EV -2.34% E -1.08% K -1.99% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 18:15
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50% NM 55.19%EV -2.29% E -1.29% K -2.97% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 44.81%EV -2.34% E -1.08% K -1.99% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 18:15
FanDuel1.74I 57.47% NM 55.38%EV -3.95% E -2.27% K -5.33% G +0.000%2.16I 46.30% NM 44.62%EV -3.24% E -1.50% K -2.79% G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-05 19:20
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47% NM 55.27%EV -3.95% E -2.27% K -5.33% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.73%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 18:20
Caesars1.74I 57.47% NM 55.27%EV -3.95% E -2.27% K -5.33% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.73%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 18:45
DraftKings1.74I 57.47% NM 55.04%EV -3.95% E -2.27% K -5.33% G +0.000%2.13I 46.95% NM 44.96%EV -4.58% E -2.15% K -4.06% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-05 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80% NM 55.41%EV -4.50% E -2.60% K -6.16% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.59%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 18:55
Coral1.73I 57.80% NM 55.41%EV -4.50% E -2.60% K -6.16% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.59%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 18:55
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80% NM 55.06%EV -4.50% E -2.60% K -6.16% G +0.000%2.12I 47.17% NM 44.94%EV -5.03% E -2.37% K -4.49% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 18:54
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -4.50% E -2.60% K -6.16% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.93% E -2.82% K -5.39% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 18:24
Betr (AU)1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -4.50% E -2.60% K -6.16% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.93% E -2.82% K -5.39% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 18:25
William Hill1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -4.50% E -2.60% K -6.16% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.93% E -2.82% K -5.39% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 19:14
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14% NM 55.56%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.44%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 18:54
Neds1.72I 58.14% NM 55.56%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.44%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 18:54
Bet Right1.72I 58.14% NM 55.44%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 44.56%EV -4.14% E -1.93% K -3.63% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 19:20
Betsson1.72I 58.14% NM 55.21%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.12I 47.17% NM 44.79%EV -5.03% E -2.37% K -4.49% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 18:54
NordicBet1.72I 58.14% NM 55.21%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.12I 47.17% NM 44.79%EV -5.03% E -2.37% K -4.49% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 18:55
PlayUp1.72I 58.14% NM 55.21%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.12I 47.17% NM 44.79%EV -5.03% E -2.37% K -4.49% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 19:19
SportsBet1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.93% E -2.82% K -5.39% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 18:14
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.93% E -2.82% K -5.39% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 18:25
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14% NM 54.86%EV -5.05% E -2.94% K -7.01% G +0.000%2.09I 47.85% NM 45.14%EV -6.38% E -3.05% K -5.85% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 18:55
Fanatics1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.60% E -3.28% K -7.89% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 18:14
888sport1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.60% E -3.28% K -7.89% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 19:20
888sport (SE)1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.60% E -3.28% K -7.89% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 19:20
Mr Green (SE)1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.60% E -3.28% K -7.89% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 19:19
BetMGM1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.60% E -3.28% K -7.89% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 18:55
ReBet1.69I 59.17% NM 54.81%EV -6.71% E -3.97% K -9.72% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.19%EV -8.17% E -3.98% K -7.78% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 18:20
Fliff1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -7.81% E -4.68% K -11.66% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -1.45% E -0.658% K -1.21% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 18:20
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -7.81% E -4.68% K -11.66% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV -3.69% E -1.72% K -3.21% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 19:19
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24% NM 54.64%EV -8.36% E -5.04% K -12.67% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.36%EV -10.41% E -5.20% K -10.41% G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-05 18:54
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24% NM 54.64%EV -8.36% E -5.04% K -12.67% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.36%EV -10.41% E -5.20% K -10.41% G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-05 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerWashington Nationals (Local)Houston Astros (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.78I 56.18%2.27I 44.05%0.2%2026-07-05 19:00
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%2.27I 44.05%3.2%2026-07-05 19:10
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%2.00I 50.00%10.2%2026-07-05 18:55
Novig1.59I 62.89%1.00I 100.00%62.9%2026-07-05 19:35