The School of Odds

Penn State Nittany Lions v Marshall Thundering Herd

2026-09-05 19:30 — NCAAF

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis)

Option 1: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)

1.0298.04%Min
1.0397.28%Mean
1.0397.09%Median
1.0496.15%Max
90.30%1.107Min
93.21%1.073Max
92.40%1.082Mean
92.49%1.081Median
92.45%1.082IQM
92.47%1.081Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.04 under the IQM model: 92.45%

EV -3.85%Edge -3.70%Kelly -96.27%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit)

9.5010.53%Min
12.388.08%Mean
12.757.84%Median
14.007.14%Max
6.79%14.725Min
9.70%10.314Max
7.60%13.150Mean
7.51%13.315Median
7.55%13.247IQM
7.53%13.272Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 14.00 under the IQM model: 7.55%

EV +5.68%Edge +0.406%Kelly +0.437%Growth +0.025%

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerPenn State Nittany Lions (Local)Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet1.02I 98.04% NM 93.21%EV -5.70% E -5.59% K -284.99% G +0.000%14.00I 7.14% NM 6.79%EV +5.68% E +0.406% K +0.437% G +0.025%5.2%2026-06-11 15:30
FanDuel1.03I 97.09% NM 93.05%EV -4.78% E -4.64% K -159.18% G +0.000%13.80I 7.25% NM 6.95%EV +4.17% E +0.303% K +0.326% G +0.014%4.3%2026-06-02 07:30
DraftKings1.04I 96.15% NM 92.59%EV -3.85% E -3.70% K -96.27% G +0.000%13.00I 7.69% NM 7.41%EV -1.86% E -0.143% K -0.155% G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-20 20:29
GTbets1.04I 96.15% NM 92.59%EV -3.85% E -3.70% K -96.27% G +0.000%13.00I 7.69% NM 7.41%EV -1.86% E -0.143% K -0.155% G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-03 21:05
Caesars1.03I 97.09% NM 92.66%EV -4.78% E -4.64% K -159.18% G +0.000%13.00I 7.69% NM 7.34%EV -1.86% E -0.143% K -0.155% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-20 20:28
Coolbet1.03I 97.09% NM 92.39%EV -4.78% E -4.64% K -159.18% G +0.000%12.50I 8.00% NM 7.61%EV -5.64% E -0.451% K -0.490% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 02:10
NordicBet1.02I 98.04% NM 92.46%EV -5.70% E -5.59% K -284.99% G +0.000%12.50I 8.00% NM 7.54%EV -5.64% E -0.451% K -0.490% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-02 09:19
Betsson1.02I 98.04% NM 92.46%EV -5.70% E -5.59% K -284.99% G +0.000%12.50I 8.00% NM 7.54%EV -5.64% E -0.451% K -0.490% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-02 09:19
Bovada1.03I 97.09% NM 92.10%EV -4.78% E -4.64% K -159.18% G +0.000%12.00I 8.33% NM 7.90%EV -9.41% E -0.784% K -0.856% G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-20 20:28
Unibet (UK)1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.70% E -5.59% K -284.99% G +0.000%12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -9.41% E -0.784% K -0.856% G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-11 15:29
PointsBet (AU)1.02I 98.04% NM 91.51%EV -5.70% E -5.59% K -284.99% G +0.000%11.00I 9.09% NM 8.49%EV -16.96% E -1.54% K -1.70% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-02 09:19
LeoVegas1.02I 98.04% NM 90.30%EV -5.70% E -5.59% K -284.99% G +0.000%9.50I 10.53% NM 9.70%EV -28.29% E -2.98% K -3.33% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-02 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth