The School of Odds

Memphis Tigers v Arkansas State Red Wolves

2026-09-05 23:00 — NCAAF

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis)

Option 1: Memphis Tigers (Local)

1.2083.33%Min
1.2381.50%Mean
1.2381.30%Median
1.2480.65%Max
75.45%1.325Min
77.76%1.286Max
77.26%1.294Mean
77.28%1.294Median
77.26%1.294IQM
77.29%1.294Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.24 under the IQM model: 77.26%

EV -4.20%Edge -3.39%Kelly -17.49%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Arkansas State Red Wolves (Visit)

3.7526.67%Min
4.1724.01%Mean
4.2023.81%Median
4.3023.26%Max
22.24%4.496Min
24.55%4.074Max
22.74%4.398Mean
22.72%4.401Median
22.74%4.397IQM
22.71%4.403Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.30 under the IQM model: 22.74%

EV -2.22%Edge -0.516%Kelly -0.672%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMemphis Tigers (Local) ▼Arkansas State Red Wolves (Visit)MarginUpdated
DraftKings1.24I 80.65% NM 77.62%EV -4.20% E -3.39% K -17.49% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 22.38%EV -2.22% E -0.516% K -0.672% G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-20 20:39
Caesars1.24I 80.65% NM 77.21%EV -4.20% E -3.39% K -17.49% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.79%EV -4.49% E -1.07% K -1.40% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-20 20:39
FanDuel1.24I 80.65% NM 76.99%EV -4.20% E -3.39% K -17.49% G +0.000%4.15I 24.10% NM 23.01%EV -5.63% E -1.36% K -1.79% G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 08:10
Bovada1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.97% E -4.04% K -21.61% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.22% E -0.516% K -0.672% G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-20 20:39
GTbets1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.97% E -4.04% K -21.61% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.22% E -0.516% K -0.672% G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-20 21:39
Coolbet1.23I 81.30% NM 77.35%EV -4.97% E -4.04% K -21.61% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.65%EV -4.49% E -1.07% K -1.40% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 02:10
Hard Rock Bet1.22I 81.97% NM 77.70%EV -5.74% E -4.71% K -26.10% G +0.000%4.25I 23.53% NM 22.30%EV -3.35% E -0.789% K -1.03% G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-20 20:40
Unibet (UK)1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.74% E -4.71% K -26.10% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.49% E -1.07% K -1.40% G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-20 20:39
LeoVegas1.22I 81.97% NM 75.45%EV -5.74% E -4.71% K -26.10% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 24.55%EV -14.72% E -3.93% K -5.35% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-04 22:45
PointsBet (AU)1.20I 83.33% NM 76.92%EV -7.29% E -6.07% K -36.44% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.08%EV -9.04% E -2.26% K -3.01% G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-12 02:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth