The School of Odds

Florida State Seminoles v SMU Mustangs

2026-09-07 23:30 — NCAAF

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis)

Option 1: Florida State Seminoles (Local)

2.0050.00%Min
2.1147.35%Mean
2.1147.39%Median
2.2045.45%Max
43.59%2.294Min
47.78%2.093Max
45.14%2.215Mean
44.99%2.223Median
44.86%2.229IQM
45.12%2.217Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.20 under the IQM model: 44.86%

EV -1.30%Edge -0.591%Kelly -1.08%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: SMU Mustangs (Visit)

1.6859.52%Min
1.7357.90%Mean
1.7158.48%Median
1.8354.64%Max
52.22%1.915Min
56.41%1.773Max
54.86%1.823Mean
55.01%1.818Median
55.14%1.814IQM
54.88%1.822Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.83 under the IQM model: 55.14%

EV +0.900%Edge +0.492%Kelly +1.08%Growth +0.010%

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerFlorida State Seminoles (Local)SMU Mustangs (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -10.27% E -5.14% K -10.27% G +0.000%1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV +0.900% E +0.492% K +1.08% G +0.010%4.6%2026-07-02 01:40
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -5.79% E -2.76% K -5.26% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -2.41% E -1.36% K -3.13% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-02 01:49
Coolbet2.12I 47.17% NM 44.94%EV -4.89% E -2.31% K -4.37% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 55.06%EV -4.61% E -2.67% K -6.32% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-02 11:00
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08% NM 45.41%EV -6.68% E -3.21% K -6.19% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 54.59%EV -4.61% E -2.67% K -6.32% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-02 01:50
Bovada2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -1.30% E -0.591% K -1.08% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -5.72% E -3.34% K -8.05% G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-23 16:29
GTbets2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -1.30% E -0.591% K -1.08% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -5.72% E -3.34% K -8.05% G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-23 16:20
Caesars2.17I 46.08% NM 44.07%EV -2.65% E -1.22% K -2.26% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.93%EV -5.72% E -3.34% K -8.05% G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-03 16:29
Betsson2.09I 47.85% NM 45.00%EV -6.24% E -2.98% K -5.72% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.00%EV -5.72% E -3.34% K -8.05% G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-31 06:29
NordicBet2.09I 47.85% NM 45.00%EV -6.24% E -2.98% K -5.72% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 55.00%EV -5.72% E -3.34% K -8.05% G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-31 06:29
DraftKings2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -1.30% E -0.591% K -1.08% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -6.27% E -3.69% K -8.95% G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-23 16:20
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00% NM 45.95%EV -10.27% E -5.14% K -10.27% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 54.05%EV -6.27% E -3.69% K -8.95% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-04 22:55
MyBookie.ag2.14I 46.73% NM 43.98%EV -3.99% E -1.87% K -3.50% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.02%EV -7.37% E -4.39% K -10.84% G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-21 19:39
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78% NM 45.04%EV -8.03% E -3.92% K -7.65% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 54.96%EV -7.37% E -4.39% K -10.84% G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-02 01:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth